Although the weather is set to be rather mixed over the next few days, with fears that the A return to unsettled weather and thunderstorms on the Languedoc With Thursday and Friday coming up, next week could well be a scorcher in the South-East in France.
Very hot air coming from the Maghreb
According to the main large-scale numerical forecast models, which we are studying very closely, a a spell of very hot weather is likely to occur during this final week of June. The cause is a thalweg -a low-pressure trough- situated over the Atlantic is likely to struggle to move across France, effectively causing very hot air to rise from the Maghreb.
How intense? And where?
At this stage, it is still difficult to go into detail and provide a very precise forecast for the region as a whole. The exact behaviour of the trough will determine the intensity, location and duration of this potential spell of very hot weather.
However, one scenario seems to be emerging from these trends: that of a likely heatwave which would affect at least the south-east of the country.
Eastern Languedoc, the Rhône Valley and Provence are the focus
The East of Languedoc, Provence, the Rhône Valley and even parts of the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes and Burgundy regions could be affected by a heatwave, potentially lasting at least four consecutive days, between Tuesday 25 June and Friday 28 June, at the very least. It should be noted that other departments in the region Occitanie could also experience a heatwave.
Temperatures are then expected to reach between 35°C and 38°C in the afternoon, under standardised shelter – that is, in the shade – between Gard, the Rhône Valley and Provence. Peaks at 39°C or even 40°C might be possible locally. The Department ofHérault could also be affected, although it is not yet possible to say whether the criteria for a heatwave will be met.
Pre-defined heatwave alert thresholds
Reliability remains limited at present: other regions may also be at risk of extreme heat. As a reminder, the heatwave plan and weather warnings are triggered, amongst other factors, on the basis of pre-established thresholds. These thresholds take into account the minimum and maximum temperatures forecast in the shade over a period of at least three consecutive days.
Whilst it is therefore still too early to say for certain whether there will be a heatwave next week, we can already say that temperatures unusually high for this time of year are expected across our departments, starting this Monday, 24 June, and lasting for at least a few days....
