As the official wildfire season approaches, the findings are surprising (and worrying): in the Indian state of Uttarakhand, satellite alerts designed to detect the outbreak of fires are proving to be largely… misleading. Between November 2025 and January 2026 – a period usually classified as ‘low season’ – 1,957 alerts were issued by the Forest Survey of India (FSI). On the ground, following a site-by-site verification, only 132 fires were confirmed. That is 6.75 per cent.
A disconnect that wears teams down… and undermines prevention efforts
On paper, the increase in the number of alerts during winter might have suggested an imminent crisis: during the wet season, fires are generally less common. But the reality observed by forest rangers tells a different story: hours of walking, sometimes over rough terrain, to reach remote locations… only to find neither smoke nor flames.
"Our teams are overworked", says a senior official. “The staff and resources wasted on tracking down these phantom fires could be put to better use in genuine conservation and prevention efforts.”
The problem is not just logistical: it is also a question of operational priorities. Every false alarm ties up staff, vehicles, time and energy — resources that are then lacking for monitoring high-risk areas, maintaining firebreaks, raising awareness or preparing equipment.
Why are there so many false alarms?
Analyses suggest that satellite systems struggle to distinguish a destructive wildfire from everyday activities, such as:
- the burning of agricultural residues by farmers,
- controlled burns carried out by the forestry services to limit the spread of future fires,
- fires located outside forest areas, but detected as “hotspots”.
The result: a threat assessment that becomes unclear, and a response chain that ends up chasing after alerts… which are sometimes completely unrelated to a forest fire.
132 confirmed fires, 18.84 hectares lost
During the period under review, the 132 confirmed incidents resulted in the loss of 18.84 hectares of forest. Every area affected by fire counts, but the scale is nothing like what the nearly 2,000 initial alerts might have suggested.
The Minister for Forestry of Uttarakhand, Subodh Uniyal, has openly expressed concern about this: “I have always maintained that the alerts provided by the Indian Forest Service are not entirely accurate. Only 6 to 7 per cent of these alerts turn out to be genuine upon verification.”
He calls for technological progress and, above all, better filtering: “We need accurate, real-time data that allows us to distinguish between a kitchen fire, a farm fire and a forest fire.”
Fire season is approaching: from 15 February to 15 June
As we enter the most critical period (from 15 February to 15 June), the forestry department is refining its internal reports to avoid spreading resources too thinly and to focus efforts where they are really needed. Because, beyond the accuracy of the sensors, the challenge is simple: to free up time for what really matters.
In a situation where every minute counts, the reliability of alerts is not merely a technical detail: it is essential for operational response, prevention and staff safety.
Key figures – Technical analysis of alerts
- Total number of alerts: 1 957
- Actual forest fires: 132 (≈ 6,75 %)
- Breakdown of other alerts:
- False alarms: 768
- Outdoor fires (outside forest areas): 756
- Controlled burns carried out by the department: 301